A shocking decline in prosecutions and convictions for rape needs to be explained

The Government has apologised following an end-to-end review of how cases of rape and sexual assault are handled. The statistics are startling. In 2015-16 there were 5,190 prosecutions and 2,991 convictions; in 2019-20 there were just 2,102 prosecutions and 1,439 convictions. Ministers want to return to 2016, which effectively means setting a target for prosecutions, a controversial strategy. The presumption of innocence is a cornerstone of our legal system and sexual assault can be hard to prove. That said, such a shocking decline in prosecutions – recorded even as cases substantially rose – demands explanation.

Delays and incompetence by the police and Crown Prosecution Service seem to have resulted in victims walking away from the process. Trials collapsing when digital evidence belatedly came to light might have led to a greater emphasis upon checking the credibility of the accuser, and the Government wants to shift attention to the history of the suspect. The report touches upon the suggestion that the CPS switched to a so-called “bookmaker’s approach” of considering the probability of a case’s success based on experience – along with a target conviction rate of 60 per cent. Some campaigners said this encouraged the CPS to drop tough cases; the courts, however, found in favour of the CPS.

Several reforms on the table, such as processing data more speedily, are overdue and welcome; others, such as pre-recording cross-examinations, will raise objections. A balance has to be struck between improving a system that has clearly gone very wrong while protecting principles of justice, and not injecting biases into the process that produce their own injustices down the road.