Boris Johnson is under pressure to clarify his Government’s position on students wearing face masks after Scotland’s Health Secretary announced they would be made compulsory in schools from Monday.
Secondary schools will be given “obligatory guidance” that pupils in Scotland will have to wear face coverings in corridors and communal areas in schools from Monday, John Swinney confirmed.
The announcement sparked a debate as to whether Westminster should follow suit and implement a similar rule in schools across England.
Is a U-turn on the way?
A Number 10 spokesman said on Monday the Government had “no plans” to review the guidance on face coverings in schools.
But we have seen the Government make firm denials several time in the past few months that have then been swiftly reversed – could the same be about to happen again?
This isn’t a simple case of “following the science” – that favoured phrase – because studies and evidence around this matter are all over the place.
The World Health Organisation (WHO), along with Unicef, updated its guidance to advise that children over the age of 12 should wear face coverings after reviewing the evidence on Covid-19 transmission in children, the use of masks by children and their social and developmental needs.
Limited evidence
It concluded children under five should not be required to wear masks and those between six and 11 should only wear them if it is not detrimental to them, they are in an area of widespread transmission and they are able to be helped by an adult. Children aged 12 and over should wear a mask under the same conditions as adults, the WHO said, especially if they cannot stay at least one metre apart from others.
But, in publishing this guidance, the WHO widely acknowledged that these judgements were being made on very limited evidence about transmission of Covid-19 between children at school and the effectiveness of masks.
Up-to-date evidence has suggested that just four per cent of all coronavirus cases in the EU EEA and the UK were among children, and data suggests these have been largely contracted from households. This would imply mask-use at school would be largely futile.
But it is still not clear whether children – who can often be asymptomatic or have a very mild case of the virus – are just not being tested as much because they are not presenting with symptoms.
The evidence should also be caveated with the assumption that data on school transmission has been skewed by the fact many countries have closed schools up until now.
Mask use may only work for older children
As a result, evidence on transmission rates between children and staff in an educational setting is few and far between, although previous studies have suggested infection rates is lower among young children.
Evidence of the benefits and harms of children wearing masks to mitigate transmission of Covid-19 and other coronaviruses is even more limited.
The WHO said, however, a study of mask wearing during seasonal flu outbreaks in Japan noted that the use they were more effective in children aged nine to 12 than those aged six to nine.
Another laboratory study, suggested children between five and 11 years old were “significantly less protected by mask wearing compared to adults” but, again, the evidence is limited as this may well have been because masks are generally made to fit adults and therefore are more effective when worn by them.
Evidence still vague
Other studies have been carried out on youths and children wearing masks in schools but the science it new, the results results are varied and compliance is generally poor.
The Government guidance in England currently says that, based on the current evidence, the wearing of face coverings in schools is not recommended, because pupils and staff are mixing in consistent groups.
And it even adds that misuse of a mask – such as repeatedly touching faces – could inadvertently increase the risk of transmission, while it could also have a negative effect on communication.
With the science still so vague, Mr Johnson’s decision has to inevitably become a political one.
Political decision
The unions and professional bodies are already beginning to join one side of the debate – both the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) and the National Education Union (NEU) said WHO advice should be heeded and the Government should review its policy.
Labour has jumped in, with its shadow Education Secretary Kate Green demanding Mr Johnson “must listen to this evidence” and introduce compulsory use of face masks in schools.
Clearly sensing this may be an opportunity for Labour to push ministers into another policy change, she added: “The last thing concerned parents and pupils need is another last minute u-turn from this government that throws school plans into chaos.”
Downing Street will want to avoid the impression that Mr Johnson is, yet again, trailing behind Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon – something we have already seen over exam results and the use of masks in public.
And they don’t want to give Labour the satisfaction of being, again, on the right side of the argument.
With ministers – and schools – still reeling from the A Level fiasco earlier this month, Mr Johnson may have to dig his heels in on the issue of masks in schools even if its for no other reason than to appear decisive and in control.
But if this goes wrong, he could end up looking like he has chosen stubbornness over health.