If Trump wins, Net Zero is dead

Donald Trump took time out of his hectic election campaigning this week to congratulate Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for his intervention in an issue close to his heart: the fightback against climate targets. Sunak had pledged to roll back an array of Net Zero goals that have been either already set into law by the British government or remain a part of the extensive omnibus energy bill pushed by his own Conservative party.

“I always knew Sunak was smart, that he wasn’t going to destroy and bankrupt his nation for fake climate alarmists that don’t have a clue,” Trump said in the Truth Social post, adding, “Congratulations to Prime Minister Sunak for recognising this SCAM before it was too late!”

But the former President might want to cool his heels on that assumption for a bit. First, the 400-plus page energy bill remains under consideration in Parliament. Though the PM pledged to “set out a series of long-term decisions” in his speech, he has made no visible move yet to either pull the bill from consideration or substantially amend it to remove any of the onerous provisions it contains, some of which he promised to roll back. 

Absent such changes, Sunak’s speech is rendered essentially meaningless as the costly and punitive Net Zero policies continue plowing inexorably forward. Actions speak louder than words, and quick action here is required.

But will Sunak take such action in the face of the post-speech blowback from most of the UK media, his political opposition and even some members of his own party who remain committed to their Net Zero virtue signaling exercises? Sunak tried to have things both ways in his speech, professing his ongoing fealty to the Net Zero dogma and boasting that he still plans on “doubling down on the new green industries of the future”. 

For his own part, Trump never felt much need to virtue signal about the energy transition, which in the US only started in earnest after he had left office. Indeed, one of his earliest acts on this front was to pull the US out as a participating member of the Paris Accords, a policy reversed by his successor. While in office, Trump boasted about wanting the US oil and gas industry to “drill, baby, drill,” implementing expansionist policies that enhanced the country’s energy security, rendering it almost energy independent before the Covid bust set in during 2020.

Nothing much appears to have changed in Trump’s general approach to the energy question, and he promises if elected in 2024 to quickly reverse much of the Biden Green New Deal approach starting on the day he is sworn into office. There is no reason to disbelieve that commitment. 

So, assuming Sunak follows through on the legislative front and further assuming a Trump victory in 2024 (he leads Biden by 9 points in the new Washington Post/ABC poll released over the weekend), would a two-pronged rollback of Net Zero action by a pair of the developed world’s strongest democracies ring a death knell for the entire green energy push? 

Given the crucial role played in this energy transition by the application of multi-lateral peer pressure at the UN, it does seem reasonable to assume that a lessening of pressure from London and Washington DC would allow other nations to follow suit. We have already seen similar efforts to roll back Net Zero targets over the past year in developed nations like Sweden, Italy, and the Netherlands as their cost becomes clear. 

Many undeveloped nations would be even more likely to pull back in the face of easing international pressure. Some of these governments have loudly protested the economically ruinous impacts of efforts by the OECD countries to deny them access to the same sources of energy that facilitated western growth throughout the past century. They would no doubt welcome an easing of such costly pressures. 

Even China, still technically classified as a developing nation despite sporting the world’s 2^nd largest economy, would likely welcome an easing of international scrutiny to keep investing hundreds of billions of dollars annually in less reliable energy sources as its own economy shows clear signs of slowing.

By making last week’s speech, PM Sunak has vaulted himself into a position to lead a movement towards a more rational, thoughtful approach to rebalancing global energy systems. Should both Sunak and Trump win their coming re-election efforts, the UK and US could form a powerful partnership in leading more rational and truly sustainable change.

David Blackmon had a 40 year career in the US energy industry, the last 23 years of which were spent in the public policy arena, managing regulatory and legislative issues for various companies. He continues to write and podcast on energy matters