Steel futures slumped to a four-year low of CNY 3,664 per tonne on March 28th before paring losses to the CNY 3,400 level amid an increasingly pessimistic outlook on Chinese demand. Industry data showed that steel producers continued to take iron ore inputs scheduled for delivery, but hot metal output totaled 2.21 million tonnes for the last three weeks, trailing normal averages for the usual levels in the peak season amid the lack of steel bidding. On top of that, earlier estimates showed that output of pig iron, which is smelted iron ore in blast furnaces, dropped by nearly 7% this year. The developments took place as weak consumer purchasing power dampened the confidence over a significant recovery in the Chinese property market, erasing the need for new construction inputs despite efforts from authorities to prompt up housing demand. Major developer Vanke reported a 50% drop in core profit for 2023, while Country Garden delayed the publication of its results.
Steel decreased 507 Yuan/MT or 12.91% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Steel reached an all time high of 6198 in May of 2021. Steel - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March 29 of 2024.
Steel decreased 507 Yuan/MT or 12.91% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Steel is expected to trade at 3430.98 Yuan/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3308.03 in 12 months time.